STORM FORECAST
VALID Thu 30 Mar 06:00 - Fri 31 Mar 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 29 Mar 23:58 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

A threat level 1 is forecast across northern France, southern Benelux and western Germany

SYNOPSIS

Thursday at 06:00 UTC... at 500 hPa a broad WSWly jet stream is forecast to enter west-central Europe. Further east...a trough extending from a cut-off low over the western Ukraine to southern Italy sharpens and swings eastward.

DISCUSSION

...Northern France, southern Benelux, west-central Germany...
An ill-defined vorticity maximum is expected to be advected eastward in the strong mid-level flow and is expected to reach the English Channel around 18:00 UTC. Related rising motions ahead of the system are expected to destabilise the otherwise near-neutral atmosphere sufficiently to allow for the formations of a couple of thundering convective storms in the evening that will likely organize into one of more squall lines. With 850 hPa winds near 25 m/s, is appears likely that wind gusts of similar or slightly higher magnitude will locally occur at the surface on the passage of the storms. Additionally, there is some chance of small hail. The strong low-level shear suggests that a some threat of tornadoes will exist with the storms as well.

...western Turkey ...
Model guidance suggest that sufficient instability may build over western Turkey to allow for the formation of isolated thunderstorms. Given the moderately strong deep-layer shear that is in place, it is not ruled out that the storms become well-organized and produce some large hail and strong gusts. The overall threat is however too low to give a threat level.

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